Tuesday, March 1, 2016

Breaking down Super Tuesday Realities

BALTIMORE, Maryland March 1, 2016 - I keep waiting to hear someone explain the side opposite of the side that Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are on.  I speak here of the "insiders," Washington Elites," "RHINOs" or "Old Line (or Old Time) Republicans," who oppose two of the three outsiders (non-Washington Elites, non-Party Insiders, etc.) who remain in the GOP race, and would oppose all three - Dr. Ben Carson is the third outsider - if Dr. Carson were getting more votes.  He still might, especially if Cruz or Trump are bulldozed out of the race for whatever reason.

When I say I keep waiting to hear them explain their side, I mean I want them to tell me what their candidates stand for, what policies they intend to implement, what legislative plans they intend to introduce. I assume their candidates are Marco Rubio and John Kasich, now that Jeb Bush has did a cut and run.  Maybe they could explain the policy differences between Rubio and Crews, or Rubio and Trump, or Kasich and Crews or, well, you get it.  Are there differences?  It's a bit of a sticky wicket for the old liners, since in public they purport to support pretty much the same policy objectives as do Trump, Crews and Carson.  All say they will close the southern border.  All say they will do away with Obamashame, er, ah, Obamacare.  All say they are going to really crack down on ISIS (actually, every Democrat and every Republican are promising to introduce ISIS to the promised land - the one without the 72 virgins.  That's what they say.  In public.  The difference is what they will actually do.

You can bet your bottom dollar that Crews and Trump really will try to obliterate the unadulterated evil that is ISIS.  You can  bet your bottom dollar that both Trump and Crews will try to get Obamashame repealed in its entirety.  You also can be sure that the southern border will be extremely difficult to breech within about twelve months of Trump or Crews acceding to the presidency.  You and I can be pretty sure of these things.  The only fly in the ointment that I can conceive of is if the Democrats retake majority control of the Senate.  Nobody wants that to happen with the Democrats trending so far left that the middle of the road is out of sight, over the horizon.  Way over the horizon.

Now if Rubio or Kasich are elected, these policy objectives are quite murky.  I do think Kasich will turn the heat way up on ISIS.  I do think Rubio will also get tough with ISIS, and I also think he will do away with some of the Obamashame legislation.  The key word, there, is "some."  If the big money people he is getting cozy with like some of Obamashame, some of Obamashame will remain on the books.  And I believe the big money types like some of the Obamashame law.  Just saying...

The Southern Border?  With Kasich and Rubio, you get a crap shoot after they are sworn in.  Rubio will make it seem like he is getting tough on illegal border crossing.  He'll dress it up.  But I bet if you look closely, after, say, a couple of months, you'll see people still getting in.  You will, and it will not be a trickle.  And forget about deportation, at least in any significant way.  It will be the same with Kasich.  He is not going to deport anyone who has been here for any significant amount of time.  Both Rubio and Cruz will make a big deal of putting the hammer down on illegal immigrants with criminal records.  That will get a lot of play.  But if you look at the numbers, there will not be any.  Not to speak of, that is.  There will be a trickle of deportations, but that is it. 

What is in the offing after today?  Let's say Trump wins most of the states, but Crews wins in Texas and one to three other states. Those big money insiders and the RHINOs that speak for them are not going to go away.  But their options will be reduced.  I think they will still back either Rubio or Kasich.  The other will be forced out.  Then they will try to get some votes for the survivor.  Come the convention, they'll do everything in their power to stop, curtail, derail or humiliate Trump.  It could be ugly.  

As I complete this post, Rubio is addressing his followers in Miami at the end of Super Tuesday.  He is claiming his new drive to paint Trump as a Con Artist is working.  He thinks he can win Florida.  On this day, he did not win even one state - unless, somehow, he pulls Minnesota out while Trump and Crews win every other state.  Some people don't get the message the voters send.  Some people get it but hate and won't acknowledge it.  Which category is Rubio in?

No comments:

Post a Comment