BALTIMORE, Maryland February 21, 2014 - Where to start? In the ancient city of Kiev first, and now in other cities in this Eastern European land inhabited from the earliest archaeological records forward by the same folk who live there now, pro-west demonstrators have taken to the street by the thousands to show their profound outrage at their government's announced willingness to gussy up to Russian Strong Man Vladimir Putin. Putin and his functionaries, in the meantime, are dropping hints that sound a lot like bombs - the real kind - indicating that the Russians are going to move into the Ukraine and restore a Putin-loving leader to power. It apparently won't be Viktor Yanukovych, the leader who flew the proverbial coup over the weekend after agreeing to hold early elections. Soon after his departure the Ukrainian Parliment issued orders for his arrest based upon their belief that it was Yanukovych who issued the orders to police and other military sorts to fire on the demonstrators. At least 80 Ukrainians are dead as a direct result.
Yanukovych is said to be holed up somewhere in the eastern part of Ukraine where native Russians are the predominant population. Kiev is the middle of the part of the country populated, chiefly, by native Ukrainians. It is these Ukrainians, or most of them, anyway, who are said to be "pro-west" in their politics. Their outrage was kindled from a flame to a conflagration by an abject reversal of the initial announced intention by Yanukovych to make a pronounced step toward the EU. Then, while that move was pending, and probably after "consultations" with the Kremlin, Yanukovych, went and said, well no, we will not join with the EU, we will join 'tightly' with Putin. Conflagration: oh so fast and oh so volatile. Memories of life under direct rule from the Kremlin are not short-lived, and people subjected to it aren't apt to tolerate it again without a fight.
Once the demonstrators were in the street, Yanukovych decided to first try to strong-arm them. But dispatching riot police and other military contingents had the opposite effect. The number of demonstrators grew exponentially. France, Poland and Germany sent emisaries to Kiev to try to defuse the tensions between the demonstrators and the Yanukovych government. The United States did not, but Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel did put a call in to the Ukrainian Defense Minister. When informed that Hagel was on the phone, the Ukrainian declined to take the call. These days, we are so darn influential.
It was a flash point in these demonstrations that Yanukovych is said to have lived like a king. His government and Yanukovych himself lived in palatial style in a large compound in Kiev replete with a private zoo. Once he fled, Ukrainians were permitted to tour the grounds of this compound, apparently for the first time. (When will heads of state learn to tone down their ostentatiousness, especially when the people they govern are struggling to stay meaningfully above the poverty line? I, for one, am glad that our President has gotten that message. He received it during one of his penny-pinching junkets to Honolulu.)
Once Yanukovych made it out of Kiev - I, for one, am shocked at his allegation that he was shot at while leaving - he took to the television air waves and announced that he was the "victim" of a coup attempt. He also said that the Parliament has no power to do what it is doing, which is govern in his absence. He said he is still president. He said he would visit the southern portion of the Ukraine this week. This last announcement ramped up tensions, which it was apparently intended to do. Sevastopol is in the southern part of the country, on the Black Sea, and contains a large Russian Naval Base and a naval base for the Ukrainian Navy. Many native Russians live there, too. In fact, Sevastopol is not so very far from Sochi.
However, there is some reason to believe that Russia; i.e., Putin, does not now have Yanukovych in its/his future plans for Ukraine. A key supporter of Putin said over the weekend that Yanukovych lost his legitimacy as a leader when he fled Kiev. If, in fact, he took off without getting clearance from Putin, that is probably true. But that does not mean Putin does not intend to act in Ukraine. He has much to lose if it slips out of the Russian Sphere of Influence. I would say it is hard to believe he would not act, and decisively, and fast.
First and foremost, Putin is 100% dedicated to a rapid and planned increase in the Russian Sphere of Influence, and to lose it in a country literally on his doorstep would be a severe setback and an international embarassment. Into this potential conflagration has stepped obama. It was a very gingerly entrance, made on tippy-toes. He and Putin are said to have spoken on the telephone about the Ukraine for about an hour on Friday. A spokesperson for the State Department met with reporters "on background" after the conversation concluded, and said, according to Politico, that the two leaders agreed that the announced deal between Yanukovych and the demonstrators “needs to be implemented quickly” and that there is “a real opportunity here for a peaceful outcome.” Read more at Politico: http://www.politico.com/story/2014/02/ukraine-obama-vladimir-putin-103779.html#ixzz2uFmFCcXd
obama has said that he believes he has a commitment from Putin not to use force; i.e., Russian Force, to "restore order". But this was before the Ukrainian Parliament issued the arrest order for Yanukovych. Since that time Russian leaders, probably with Putin's permission, have made a number of ominous statements, such as: there is no order in Kiev. Such as: outlaws appear to be running the government. Such as: Putin recalled his ambassador (he has). Do you hear a ticking object in Kiev, or is it coming to Kiev, from points east?
Commentators around the world believe that Putin is clearly destined to fill the leadership and influence void created by obama on the world stage. That is not this writer making this up. Google it. Janet Daley of the London Sunday Telegraph has written a stark and depressing column summing up the situation, not only in Ukraine but around the world. It was reprinted in Melbourne, Austrailia, in their newspaper, "The Age." You can find it at: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/putin-marches-into-the-dark-void-left-by-obama-20140223-33ad0.html
obama is a citizen of the imaginary world of the uber (super ultra) far left. Like any fringe political movement, this world is partly to mostly make-believe. obama and fellow travelers believe, somehow, that removing the one powerfull nation that actually has a conscience from a position of influence on the world stage is a good idea. They pose questions like "what right do we have to impose democracy on people? As if we impose anything, anywhere. We point the way but if people reject it, its rejected. See, for example, Palestine. And to abandon our position of influence - leaving an absolute void - leaves despots like Putin, Castro and Kim Jong-un to fill it up. They aren't waiting around for obama and his functionaries to re-think it. Says Ms. Daley: "So tell me, those of you who have demanded for years that America and the West should end their ''domination'' of geopolitics, and their interference in the affairs of far-flung nations: is this what you wanted? A free-for-all for rogue states, lunatic extremists and long-dead imperial powers, in which the lives and freedoms of populations caught up in the murderous power play would count for nothing?"
Ukraine is a land of beauty, mystery and wonder. From the Black Sea to Kiev and points north, it crosses a large swath of Europe's most eastern areas. It is a buffer land between Russia and the West, with a long history of leaving its neighbors alone and in peace. It would seem that both Russia and Europe should want to see free: a free and independent Ukraine, free from outside influence from east or west. Imagine Ukraine as the Switzerland of Northeast Europe. This is what the Ukrainians want. They know, first hand, what it is like to live under the influcnce of Russia. They don't like it. But in the world of the uber left, which smiles on dictators and fascists like old and very dear friends, the idea of a people rising up against direct orders from their leader is absolutely ghastly.
President Bush, in his second inaugural address, said America would stand with people seeking a democratic government. obama has not and obama will not ever endorse or adopt such a statement. He finds it repugnant. To Kiev's pro-west pro-democracy demonstrators, obama said, incredibly, that they will face "consequences" if their actions persist. It is, in the end, the same thing that Putin said.
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