TOWSON, Maryland, Tuesday, September 5, 2017 - In just over one week, Russia will begin a week of extremely large scale military exercises directly on the Russian-Polish border. Officially, the Russian Military Command says that some 10,000 troops will take part, but western sources say the number is actually ten times what the Russians admit to. These sources say that the military exercises will involve a breathtaking muster of some 100,000 armed Russian Troops.
The Washington Examiner's Tom Rogan wrote last week that "armored and artillery units, and strike fighter aircraft [will also participate in the military exercises. Just] as interesting, instead of training in Russia, the forces will conduct their exercises in Belarus.
"After all, bordering NATO member Poland, Belarus offers ZAPAD forces the means to rapidly strike into the heart of NATO. Joining that threat is the Russian fortress-oblast of Kaliningrad, where reservists have been called up."
Reserves called up? For exercises? On Poland's border?
If you do not think that the Polish people and the Polish government are concerned, you are wrong. I perused some of the largest-circulation Polish Newspapers and found all manner of stories, commentaries and letters to the editors about these impending "exercises." And most of the writers only believe that about 13,000 troops are taking part, not the huge number that Mr. Rogan placed in his story in the Examiner.
Some writers believe that military preparedness by both sides are to be expected.
In evaluating the level of nervousness in Poland, one must always remember Poland's long history of being overrun by larger countries on all of their sides. Russia, Germany, and the empires of the past (Austro-Hungarian, Napoleon, the Huns of the Mongolian Steppes, Teutonic Knights, etc.) have all come marching and riding into and then across Poland.
One big difference between then and now is the level of preparedness on Poland's part. The Poles themselves have put together a relatively large and absolutely well-trained army to prevent their being overrun and intimidated by their "neighbors."
Even more importantly, Poland is now a full member of NATO. If Poland is invaded by anybody, the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Canada will, by treaty, be obligated to quickly and fully come to their defense. And be assured that the Poles have reminded their NATO allies of their obligations even as tension between the USA and Russia has ramped up.
President Trump recently noted that of all of the USA's NATO Allies, Poland is one of the few to fully meet their funding obligations to NATO. If the time comes that Poland needs their NATO Allies, there will be no excuses for each and every one of them to respond. The Polish Government has done everything right. The Polish Government knows exactly what is at stake.
One of the major issues facing NATO is whether the Russians would seize the opportunity brought about by the scheduled military exercises, the ones that will use all of 100,000 soldiers, to invade Poland right now.
Right Now?
Here, according to Mr. Rogan, is the troubling line of thought that leads him to believe that an invasion is quite possible. Rogan writes that these "exercises" have as one center of operations, the Russian territory of Kaliningrad. Have you ever heard of Kaliningrad? You will be hearing quite a bit about it.
Mr. Rogan writes, "Look closely at a map of the northern part of eastern Europe, on the shores of the Baltic Sea, and you'll see Kaliningrad — it's a pocket of Russia that doesn't touch Russia, but is instead tucked between Poland and Lithuania. Kaliningrad would be a crucial breaching and supply point for any invasion."
Is there a better time for such a stunt? The USA is bogged down in Afghanistan, preoccupied with North Korea, and dealing with a Natural Disaster along the Gulf Coast, with another huge storm, Irma, getting ready to strike by the weekend. The USA is just finishing up eight long years of military disintegration under Barack Hussein Obama, the Neo-Marxist Anti-Military President. The USA Military has lots of great people and lots of great minds. But their equipment is degraded, thanks to Obama.
This might be the Russian strategy, according to Mr. Rogan:
"Invading the Baltics, Putin could use forces in Kaliningrad and Belarus to block Polish/NATO counter-offensives, as launchpads for a two-front invasion of Lithuania, and as distractions for simultaneous invasions of Latvia and Estonia.
"Putin might gamble that if his forces seized significant territory in short order, NATO would sue for peace. His intent would be a limited victory that divided NATO between those pushing for military response, and those, like Germany, who would probably assess a counter-offensive as too risky.
"Another complication is that NATO's force disposition against a Russian surprise attack remains weak. While NATO would intercept Russian communications in the immediate buildup to an attack, if those orders were sent from Moscow on short notice, there wouldn't be much NATO could do. In addition, as I've explained, NATO's rapid reaction forces in Europe are patently incapable of defeating a Russian invasion. This is a symptom of Europe's pathetic defense investment, and its consequences in rendering that continent one of largely impotent militaries. Putin also loves the fact that many EU populations oppose their government's support for NATO article 5 treaty obligations. Remember, where Germany leads, other NATO states like Italy and Spain might follow."
You are thinking, the USA has enough on its table, what with North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran and, now, the hurricane season. You are thinking that President Trump has a lot of good ideas, but the Neo-Marxist Democrats do nothing but create trouble for him.
If you are thinking all of this, don't you think Putin is, too? I, for one, will feel a lot better if September 14-20 passes without incident.
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