BALTIMORE, Maryland March 23, 2014 (updated 3:15 am EST)- Ignoring the West - in fact, showing the West utter disregard - Russian troops stormed the last Ukrainian base in Crimea, and according to reports, commandeered one of Ukraine's few submarines. All of this today, even as Western nations upped the ante with more sweeping sanctions that are said to be drawing howls of protest in Moscow from those affected. One person unaffected, at least personally, by the sanctions is Russian Strong Man Vladimir Putin.
The CbC and other media outlets reported that Russian troops used automatic weapons, armored vehicles and concussion grenades to storm the last two Ukrainian-held bases in the Crimea, even though the Ukrainian government had promised a speedy withdrawl last week and Ukraine troops have abjectly refused to resist the constant bullying techniques used by the Russians. The Ukrainian Navy was forced to surrender two vessels, including the nation's only submarine, to marauding Russian regulars and militia troops composed of ethnic Russians. Reuters said two armored vehicles had smashed through a wall at the last Ukraine Naval Base, while other reports made a similar description of the attack at the Belbek military air port. There was only one injury of a one Ukrainian soldier today, but last week one Ukrainian was killed and one officer also shot and injured. According to the CBC, the flagship of the Ukraine Navy, the "Slayutich" was surrendered after it was blocked from leaving Sevastopol by tug boats with Russian Flags. The sub, named "Zaporizhya," was seized.
Media reports continued to tell of Russian troops massed on Ukraine's eastern border. On Sunday an estimated 5,000 pro-Russian demonstrators took to the street in Donetsk, clamoring for a referendum similar to Crimeas. There were no immediate reports of violence. The United Nations, however, said that a request to send monitors to Ukraine and surrounding areas had been approved by both Ukraine and Russia.
There are three overriding issues going forward:
1. First and foremost, will Russia invade Ukraine, or even the eastern part of it where there are a substantial number of ethnic Russians. Putin has troops massed along the border between the two countries. There are lots of ethnic Russians in a strip along the border, extending west to Donetsk, rife with violence between pro-Moscow groups and pro-Ukrainian groups. But commentators have emphasized that there is no where near the kind of majority numbers as existed in Crimea. Acting Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk drew praise this week from German Prime Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier for Yatseniuk's statements reassuring all Ukrainian citizens how important they are to the future of Ukraine. A logical leader in these times would stop where he is rather than risk further sanctions and ostracization for further military incursion. But Putin has proven he is not always sensible. He likes his tough guy image. His people seem to love it, too. God help us! In 2014, peace or war turns on whether Putin will cater to his ego or commons sense and decency.
2. Will Ukraine survive economically? Its leaders confess that they are tottering on the brink of a massive default. Western leaders are moving quickly to send cash to avoid the most iminent deadlines, but even if they survive these, other bigger problems loom. Putin tried to get Ukraine's leaders to look to Moscow using money. He is said to have dangled a $15 billion grant in exchange for Ukraine joining the Russian Customs union. Ukraine declined. The saddest reality is that Ukraine's economic crisis all depends on how quickly they can put the problems with Russia off the front burner. If Putin is roaming around on every border acting like a hungry bear ready to rip out another chunk of Ukrainian territory, forcing Ukraine to spend heavily on beefing up its military units, Kiev may not be able to survive economically.
3. Will the West hold together in its rejection of Russian military adventurism? Right now, all of the west is unified in its condemnation of Russia's annexation of Crimea and the military invasion that was the catalyst for the political move. The unification has not yet spread to meaningful sanctions. The United States, Canada and the EU have frozen assets of Russian leaders - except Putin - and President Obama said Friday that one Russian Bank is also being sanctioned. Canadian Weapons Builder Bombardier said Friday that it was indefinetly delaying a $3.4 Billion deal to build turboprop fighter planes for Moscow. France has broken a military cooperation pact with Moscow and announced its intention to see to it that Moscow's membership in the G8 is a thing of the past. Avoiding future business deals with Moscow, especially deals for new weapons, is an absolute necessity if Putin is to learn that the type of imperialistic move he made in Ukraine will have a steep price. This is one question that does not depend on how tough the West's sanctions are. Instead, the issue is how long will they avoid doing new business with Russia. Both sides will suffer if the West ceases doing business with Putin, but Putin will suffer more. More than anything else, that might bring him to the bargaining table. But if first one country than another begins doing business with Moscow as if Ukraine never happened, Putin will be further emboldened. There are, of course, other things that could throw a wrench in the west's unity. One big question mark will be Russia's posture when one of the other dysfunctional dictators act up. What will Putin do if Iran moves on Israel? What will Putin do in the event of a Chinese incursion against Taiwan?
Going forward, the West has to realize that the only way they can avoid being held hostage to the demands of madmen is to hold together and act in concert with each other. They have to avoid going behind each other's backs for quick profit. Some of these leaders have to come to grips with the reality that evil, in its purest form, really exists. The only way they avoid exposing their citizens to its horrors is to stick together, thereby making the price of terrorism too expensive for thieves posing as national leaders. The real tests will come soon. It won't be long before Moscow begins looking for a country to take its money in return for arms. If sellers line up, all hell might break loose.
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