BALTIMORE, Maryland April 29, 2014 - After Tuesday's Schedule in the English Championshp League was completed, all 24 teams in the English Championship League have one match left to play, Some teams know their fate. Leicester and Burnley have earned automatic promotion to the Premier League beginning in August. The four side playoff for the third promotion is rounding into shape, but the final day of regular season play will be necessary to decide the fourth entry into the tournament. At the bottom of the standings, two teams are locked into relegation positions: Yeovil Town and Barnsley. But the third relegation position will also go down to the final day of regular season play.
And, we will look up and down in the English Soccer Hierarchy to see who will be joining the Championship League this fall. Because three teams from the Championship are moving up to the Premier League, three Premier Teams will be relegated to the Championship.
First, to the Championship League, which, afterall, is the league this writer has covered all season. Leicester City, with 99 points, and Burnley, with 92 points, have already clinched automatic promotion, and both have earned it with the kind of consistent high quality play they will both need next season in the Premier. When Burnley was last in the Premier in 2009-2010 they played well at home at venerable Turf Moor. But on the road the Claret did not fare nearly as well, and when their coach deserted them at mid-season in a move that will forever live in infamy, they were doomed to relegation. The team that will trek upward this time around is far more mature and has went about business under Sean Dyche with aplomb and supreme effort. The Claret lost only five matches all season long, out of the 45 they have played so far in the Championship. They have not lost in twelve consecutive Championship road matches, a streak they will attempt to continue Saturday when they invade Reading in a match that the home team virtually must win to enter the promotion playoff. Burnley owned the late minutes, as good teams always will, and were never rattled even when hit with a spate of injuries in the late going. Besides that, Burnley's defense and net minding is superb. They have so many clean sheets most statiticians have lost count. I believe the Claret can stick in the Premier this time around. Leicester City was not fast out of the gate, but after Christmas they dug in and were all but unstoppable. They were they only team to beat Burnley at Turf Moor all season long. The third promotion from the Championship will be hotly contested. Four teams will enter a single elimination playoff beginning after the regular season ends Saturday. Three of those teams are locked in: Derby County, with 84 points, Queens Park with 77 points, and Wigans Athletic, with 73 points. Right now, as stated, Reading is in the fourth position with 70 points, but that is only one point ahead of Brighton and Hove Albion, with 69 points, and three points ahead of the Blackburn Rovers with 67 points. On Saturday, Blackburn is home to Wigan Athletic, Brighton goes to Nottingham Forest, and Reading, as stated, entertains Burnley. Blackburn must win and hope both teams ahead of it lose. Should that happen, Blackburn would be tied with Reading in points, meaning the fourth playoff position would go to the team with the better goal differential. That is very bad news for Blackburn because going in to Saturday, Reading's goal differential is 14 and Blackburn's is 7. Brighton, on the otherhand, is already tied with Reading in the goal differential column, each with 14. Naturally, if Reading can beat Burnley, it gets the fourth playoff spot. If Reading ties Burnley, Brighton will get the fourth playoff spot with a win over Nottingham. If Burnley beats Reading, Brighton can tie Reading by drawing with Nottingham. In that case, Brighton would get the fourth playoff spot because its goal differential would remain at 14 while Reading's would be reduced by the number of goals it loses to Burnley by.
At the bottom of the Championship, two teams have guaranteed themselves relegation to League One: Yeovil Town and Barnsley. The third relegation position is still up in the air. Right now, Birmingham City is the team in that third position, but several other teams might end up there if Birmingham can win on Saturday. In fact, one of the teams ahead of Birmingham - Doncaster = would be in danger if Birmingham can even get a draw on Saturday.
Right now, Birmingham has 43 points, Doncaster has 44 points, Millwall has 45 points and Blackpool has 46 points. Birmingham has one unusual advantage, its Goal Differential is far better than any of the teams it is fighting with to avoid relegation: Birmingham's GD is =16, Doncaster's is =30, Millwall's is =29 and Blackpool's is -25. On Saturday, Birmingham will have to come up with points at Bolton to make any of these possibilities a reality. The Wanderers are 14 wins, 16 draws and 15 losses, good for 58 points and 14th place. You can argue that Bolton actually plays better on the road, where they have 8 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses, compared to 6 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses at home.
If Birmingham wins on Saturday, any of the teams it can catch in points are in direct danger of that last game fall into relegation land. A win would give Birmingham 46 points and they win any tie by virtue of their goal differential. If Birmingham wins, Doncaster must win to avoid relegation. Doncaster, however, is the one team amongst the four teams still in danger of relegation that is threatened with relegation if Birmingham and Bolton draw. If that draw takes place, Doncaster must either draw or beat its opponent on Saturday, Leicester City, the Champion of the Championship League. Leicester lost the first two games after it secured promotion, and briefly looked in danger of losing its first place position to Burnley. But they won their last match and will be at home Saturday. Of all the teams in danger of relegation Doncaster has the toughest opponent on the toughest field. If Birmingham and Doncaster win on Saturday, the next team in danger is Millwall. Millwall has two advantages over Doncaster besides the one point advantage in the standings. First, Birmingham cannot catch Millwall with a draw. Second, Millwall's opponent on Saturday is scrappy Bournemouth, but in this 2013-2014 season, Bournemouth is not Leicester. Plus, Millwall is at home on Saturday while Doncaster is on the road. But if Birmingham wins on Saturday, Millwall will not benefit by drawing with Bournemouth. Such a pair of results would leave the two teams tied in points at 46, but Birmingham would avoid relegation by virtue of goal differential. If Birmingham wins Saturday, then Millwall will also have to win to avoid relegation, unless Doncaster loses or ties. There is of course, another possible situation for Millwall and Doncaster. If Birmingham wins, Doncaster draws and Millwall loses, then Doncaster and Millwall will each be tied for the third relegation position with 45 points. Doncaster's goal differential would remain at =30 with a draw, while Millwall's would drop by the number of goals it loses by. If it lost to Bournemouth by one goal, it would also be tied with Doncaster in the GD column. If it lost to Bournemouth by two or more goals, Doncaster would avoid relegation by virtue of goal differential. If Doncaster and Millwall finish tied in the third relegation position in both points and goal differential, the next tiebreaker is goals scored. Going into Saturday, Millwall has six more goals scored than does Doncaster.
If Birmingham, Doncaster and Millwall all win on Saturday, and Blackpool loses, then Blackpool and Birmingham would be tied for the third relegation position, but Birmingham would avoid relegation because of its superior goal differential. If Birmingham and Doncaster win, Millwall draws and Blackpool loses, then there would be a three-way tied for the third relegation position between Birmingham, Millwall and Blackpool based on points. In that scenario, Birmingham again avoids relegation because of goal differential. Right now, Blackpool's goal differential is -25 and Millwall's is -29. In the scenario just presented, Millwall's would remain unchanged because it drew on Saturday. But Blackburn would have lost. So long as Blackburn doesn't lose by more than five goals, it avoids relegation and Millwall is relegated. If Blackpool lost by four goals, then it would also be tied with Millwall in goal differential, meaning the tiebreaker would be goals scored. Right now, Millwall has 45 goals and Blackpool has 38 goals. If that rare combination of circumstances comes to pass, where Birmingham and Doncaster win, Millwall draws and Blackpool - which is at home to Charlton Athletic - loses by exactly four goals, it would be relegated and Millwall would avoid relegation. If anybody remembers all of this, you have been looking at too many soccer tables.
What teams are going to be joining the Championship League next season? Three clubs will come down from the Premier and three will come up from League One. The clubs coming up will be the Wolverhampton Wanderers, who have clinched automatic promotion position one, and Brentford, which has clinched automatic promotion position two. The four teams that will enter League One's four-team single elimination tournament has also been decided even though there is still one game to play. Those four playoff teams are Preston North End, Leyton Orient, Rotherham United and Peterborough United.
The situation at the bottom of the Premier is a lot more muddled. First off, there are still at least two matches to play for all of the Premier teams. No Premier Team has locked up a relegation; even the last place team still has a chance to avoid relegation. Rather than provide the same kind of microanalysis as I did for the Championship League races, I will provide the table and remaining schedule for all of the teams that still stand a chance to end up relegated.
Barclay's Premier League: Teams In Danger of Relegation
13. Hull City: 37 points, 10 wins, 7 draws, 18 losses (5/3 at Aston Villa, 5/6 at Manchester United, 5/11 Everton) Goal Differential: -9
14. West Ham United, 37 points, 10 wins, 7 draws, 19 losses (5/3 Tottenham Hotspur, 5/11 at Manchester City) Goal Differential: -11
15. West Bromwich Albion: 36 points, 7 wins, 15 draws, 13 losses (5/4 at Arsenal, 5/7 at Sunderland, 5/11 Stoke City) Goal Differential: -12
16. Aston Villa: 35 points, 9 wins, 8 draws, 18 losses (5/3 Hull City, 5/7 at Manchester City, 5/11 at Tottenham Hotspur) Goal Differential: -17
17. Sunderland: 32 points, 8 wins, 8 draws, 19 losses (5/3 at Manchester United, 5/7 West Bromwich Albion, 5/11 Swansea City) Goal Differential: -20
18. Norwich City: 32 points, 8 wins, 8 draws, 20 losses (5/4 at Chelsea, 5/11 Arsenal) Goal Differential: -32
19. Fulham: 31 points, 9 wins, 4 draws, 23 losses (5/3 at Stoke City, 5/11 Crystal Palace) Goal Differential: -42
20. Cardiff City: 30 points, 7 wins, 9 draws, 20 losses (5/3 at Newcastle United, 5/11 Chelsea) Goal Differential: -38
Realistically, Hull City, West Ham United, West Bromwich Albion and Aston Villa, to be relegated, would have to lose their remaining games and then have the teams below them win their games. The teams with better possibilities of being relegated on the last three teams - the teams currently in relegation positions - and Sunderland, which is tied with Norwich Ciy, and is not listed in a relegation position only because it has a better goal differential than does its opponent,
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