BALTIMORE, Maryland May 7, 2014 - Thirteen days from now ten baseball teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference will begin play in the Atlantic Coast Conference Baseball Tournament. While only the winner will get a definite bid to the NCAA Tournament starting the first weekend in June, it is virtually certain that at least four and maybe as many as seven or even eight conference schools will be selected to compete in the 64 team field. The entire field and their placements in the NCAA tournament will be announced on a selection show on ESPNU beginning at noon on May 26.
(Unlike many sports, no NCAA baseball team has a perfect record, or, really, a record that is anywhere near perfect. Right now, only four Division I teams have fewer than ten losses, and none of them has fewer than 7 losses. Conversely, less than a dozen of the 302 schools that play Division I baseball have fewer than ten wins, and none of them have fewer than four wins. Baseball is a wonderful sport.)
Because the ACC has expanded, the number of teams playing in the Conference Tournament will increase from eight to ten. According to Wikipedia, the ten teams making the conference tournament will be the two divisional champions and eight other teams based solely on their ACC won-loss record.
If you are a Maryland fan, you realize that the Terps need to win one and maybe two of their games this weekend at Pittsburgh to improve their chances of qualifying for the ACC tournament. The way things are shaking out, the .500 mark looks like the magic number for qualifying. Right now, eight schools are at or above that number. But a stunning number of schools - six - are within two games of .500 in the ACC, and I believe you need to throw Duke into that mix because while the Blue Devils are a solid 15-9 in the ACC as we speak, their final six games are with Florida State and Miami and you don't have to be a genius to realize they could very easily lose all six games. You can bet your last dollar that if a school doesn't qualify for the ACC tournament, it will not be named to the NCAA. With two weekends of conference play left, only three schools car rest easy about their ACC qualification chances: Miami, Virginia and Florida State. On the other hand, only three schools have no hope of qualifying: Boston College, Notre Dame and Virginia Tech. North Carolina State, a school that has been ranked by most polls for most of the season, is also most likely in that latter group. As we write this, the Wolfpack is 9-15 in the ACC, with six conference games remaining, three with Wake Forest in Raleigh this weekend, and three at Virginia Tech next weekend. Another possible factor in the final weeks is the game that rained out between Clemson and Maryland at College Park. If Maryland ends up on the outside looking in, they will have themselves to blame. As well as they have played most of the season, and with their outstanding starting pitching, the Terps went up to Boston last month and managed to get swept by the Eagles, one of only three ACC schools with overall losing records. If they get into the ACC tournament and play well, and are on the bubble for an NCAA berth, a very believable scenario, another game that will gnaw at them as they wait for bids to be announced will be their unlikely and, really, ridiculous loss to Mount St. Mary's. Nothing against the Mount; they came into College Park that night and played with courage and abandon, but Maryland stranded an astounding 17 runners and left the bases loaded four times, including three of the last four innings, in a one run loss.
As of now, with only thirteen days left before the ACC tournament starts, the current standings are:
Atlantic Division
1. Florida State: 17 wins, 7 losses, .708 pct (38-11)
2. Clemson: 12 wins, 11 losses, .522 pct, 4.5 games behind (29-19)
3. Wake Forest: 12 wins, 12 losses, .500 pct, 5 games behind (26-22)
4. Maryland: 12 wins, 14 losses, .462 pct, 6 games behind (29-19)
5. North Carolina State: 9 wins, 15 losses, .375 pct, 8 games behind (27-19)
6. Boston College: 9 wins, 18 losses, .333 pct, 9.5 games behind (20-29)
7. Notre Dame: 4 wins, 20 losses, .167 pct, 13 games behind (17-30)
Coastal Division
1. Miami: 19 wins, 5 losses, .792 pct (34-14)
2. Virginia: 18 wins, 6 losses, .750 pct, 1 game behind (37-9)
3. Duke: 15 wins, 9 losses, .625 pct, 4 games behind (30-18)
4. North Carolina: 13 wins, 11 losses, .542 pct, 6 games behind (27-19)
5. Georgia Tech: 14 wins, 13 losses, .519 pct, 6.5 games behind (28-19)
6. Pittsburgh: 11 wins, 13 losses, .458 pct, 8 games behind (21-24)
7. Virginia Tech: 8 wins, 19 losses, .296 pct, 12.5 games behind (19-27-1)
ACC Tournament Qualification
Two Divisional Champs and Eight Other Teams With Best ACC Winning Pct qualify
1. Miami: 19 wins, 5 losses, .792 pct [6]
2. Virginia: 18 wins, 6 losses, .750 pct [6]
3. Florida State: 17 wins, 7 losses, .708 pct [6]
4. Duke: 15 wins, 9 losses, .625 pct [6]
5. North Carolina: 13 wins, 11 losses, .542 pct [6]
6. Clemson: 12 wins, 11 losses, .522 pct [6]
7. Georgia Tech: 14 wins, 13 losses, .519 pct [3]
8. Wake Forest: 12 wins, 12 losses, .500 pct [6]
9. Maryland: 12 wins, 14 losses, .462 pct [3]
10. Pittsburgh: 11 wins, 13 losses, .458 pct [6]
11. North Carolina State: 9 wins, 15 losses, .375 pct [6]
12. Boston College: 9 wins, 18 losses, .333 pct [3]
13. Virginia Tech: 8 wins, 19 losses, .296 pct [3]
14. Notre Dame: 4 wins, 20 losses, .167 pct [6]
Legend: Teams in Bold Face are Division Leaders; Teams in Italics would not qualify for ACC Tournament if Season ended today; number in [] is number of conference games remaining
Remaining Conference Series (3 games each)
Beginning May 9:
Maryland at Pittsburgh
Clemson at Notre Dame
Florida State at North Carolina
Georgia Tech at Virginia
Miami at Duke
Wake Forest at North Carolina State
Beginning May 15:
Florida State at Duke
Boston College at Clemson
North Carolina at Miami
North Carolina State at Virginia Tech
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame
Virginia at Wake Forest
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