BALTIMORE, Maryland March 18, 2014 - According to the Influential German News Magazine "Spiegel," some 6,000 German companies are registered to do business in Russia. Germany gets a large percentage of its energy from Russia in the form of oil and natural gas. It is 100% safe to say, though, that Germany is not dependent on Russia. The accurate description of the way the two nations co-exist is "interdependent." Russia needs the manufactured goods and technology it gets from Germany. But more than anything else, it needs the money it gets from its Western Neighbor. If the German-Russian relationship severs, both nations would feel the wound very deeply.
Right now, the relationship between the Germans and the Russians is being strained, not yet to the breaking point, mind you, but that frightening point in their important relationship is now visible on the horizon. Putin's actions, in using military force to annex land, are destined to force that breaking point upon both nations sooner rather than later. Germany is of the opinion that it is destined to be the leader of the EU. Many EU nations are comfortable with Germany filling that role. There are other choices, of course, but not many. And no other nation combines the leadership credentials with the economic strength necessary to fill the role in a meaningful way. Angela Merkel talks and acts like a leader. But that role has lots of weight. Right now, the biggest is the necessity of Germany stepping up to the Sanctions table and putting its money where its mouth is. Apparently, Germany is ready to do it. The editors of Spiegel, who watch Merkel on a day in and day out basis, think she has no choice, even though German business will feel the weight of Germany's role in their pocketbooks.
Just last week Merkel met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. She is quick, in fact, to meet with all of the leaders of the EU nations, just like a leader would. Putin is believed to be hell-bent on reassembling the Soviet Union. That does not mean he will rebuild the Iron Curtain; he does not have the wherewithal to do that, fortunately. But countries that, during the Cold War, had an "S.S.R." behind their proper name, had better be ready for the same kind of maneuvering that those in Georgia nnd Crimea were witness to. Those countries with border areas made up of Ethnic Russians are forewarned to be ready; that was the same characteristic that Putin pointed to when he invaded Georgia and Ukraine.
France has also been engaging in the kind of dialogue that a committed constituency would need to if the EU is going to be a real deterrent force to Putin the megalomaniac. Late last week, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said his nation was ready to impose a second round of sanctions if the ones the EU imposed immediately after the Russian invasion did not work. Putin fumed. Now, Fabius told Europe One Radio on Monday that Russian membership in the G-8 is, basically, a thing of the past. (For the record, President Bush's former top aide, Karl Rove, made the same recommendation this morning on Fox.) If Merkel and Germany stumble, France will assume the role. And don't discount the Poles. More than ever, the Poles know they have to do what has to be done to protect themselves and their economic and military interests. They have been among the most strident when it comes to Putin and his megalomania. They have witnessed, first hand, the worst of Russian Imperialism. While other countries have viewed Russian atrocities from afar, the Poles have experienced Katyn Forest personally. But the Poles have also proven themselves mature in international affairs far beyond what events would indicate. When an airplane carrying almost every Polish political, religious, business and military leader crashed in Russia en route to a 70th Anniversary Memorial Service for the Katyn atrocity, killing all 96 on board, they investigated the incident along with the Russians, and came to the conclusion that it was mostly the fault of their own pilots. The result of the investigation was an actual warming of relations between the two nations. When USA President Barack Obama scuttled an already agreed-to installation of defensive missles in Poland by the USA, the Poles were rightly incensed. But they have not allowed that incident to injure the way they deal with the Americans. Just this week they welcomed Vice-President Joseph Biden to Warsaw, and no public mention of the Obama faux pas was made public.
The real question in the west is what kind of steps will impress upon Putin and other Dictators that acting on megalomaniac intentions will not pay. Rove spoke to that during an appearance on Fox. Putin rolled into Georgia at the very end of the Bush presidency, when the USA and other Western Nations were involved in the "Surge" campaign in Iraq. Rove said Bush immediately ordered the United States Air Force to fly the elite Georgian Troops engaged in the fighting in Iraq back to Georgia so that Putin would realize that there would be a heavy military price to pay if he intended to annex all of Georgia. In fact, Russian troops did annex part of Georgia, but only a small part, and even that came with a very heavy military price. Russian troops and equipment were exposed as being ill-trained and ill-equipped. Bush's actions did not directly challenge Putin militarily. But they indicated to Putin that the United States would help Georgia logistically, which is an extremely omminous warning to Putin. Obama, on the other hand, has been reluctant to do much of anything. His move in providing fighter jets to Latvia, Estonia and Lithuania, as well as to Poland, was done with extreme reluctance, and yet was his most dynamic and important step to date. As Credible and Incisive has pointed out so many times, Obama is a denizon of the ultra far left, and his existence there affects everyone of his perceptions. David Remnick, the editor of the New Yorker magazine, and an outstanding writer, but also a committed liberal, said just last night on Late Night with Seth Meyers that "Obama was elected to stay out of Wars." Meyers had asked him to evaluate Obama in view of the Crimean affair. If Remnick actually thinks that, or, far worse, if Obama actually thinks that, than Putin is just getting started. It is an admirable goal to stay out of war. But refusing to stand up to a Vladimir Putin will invite war, not discourage it. Or didn't Neville Chamberlain teach us anything?
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