BALTIMORE, Maryland March 30, 2014 - If there is one day, one event, that marks the end of winter and the coming of spring for me, it is Oriole Opening Day. As I've gotten older I've not picked up too much pre-season interest. This year, especially, it was so bloody cold in Baltimore. Today, March 30, it snowed again. Snowed! Now as I write this it is a few minutes after 8 pm. So far, it isn't laying. Now I remember opening days being snowed out. I remember sitting through snow squalls while at a game in April. The difference is that this year has been the coldest winter I ever remember. It got cold early and it stayed cold. This year, I really appreciate Opening Day.
After making the playoffs in 2012, after decades of losing, the Orioles came up just a tad short in 2013. There were considerably more injuries in 2013 then there were in 2012. And the offense seemed to run out of gas in September, despite the presence of one of the most prolific power hitters in baseball history: Chris Davis. The Birds made a number of important acquisitions in the off-season. I will review the new players below, list the roster, and make a few predictions.
First, here are the American League Eastern Division Standings at the end of each of the three previous seasons.
2013:
American League East W L Pct. GB Home Road
Boston Red Sox 97 65 .599 — 53–28 44–37
Tampa Bay Rays 92 71 .564 5½ 51–30 41–41
Baltimore Orioles 85 77 .525 12 46–35 39–42
New York Yankees 85 77 .525 12 46–35 39–42
Toronto Blue Jays 74 88 .457 23 40–41 34–47
20!2:
American League East W L Pct. GB Home Road
New York Yankees 95 67 .586 — 51–30 44–37
Baltimore Orioles 93 69 .574 2 47–34 46–35
Tampa Bay Rays 90 72 .556 5 46–35 44–37
Toronto Blue Jays 73 89 .451 22 41–40 32–49
Boston Red Sox 69 93 0.426 26 34–47 35–46
2011:
American League East W L Pct. GB Home Road
New York Yankees 97 65 .599 — 52–29 45–36
Tampa Bay Rays 91 71 .562 6 47–34 44–37
Boston Red Sox 90 72 .556 7 45–36 45–36
Toronto Blue Jays 81 81 .500 16 42–39 39–42
Baltimore Orioles 69 93 .426 28 39–42 30–51
There is enough food for thought in those numbers and statistics to last a whole hot stove season. The first thing that strikes me is the huge effect free agents have on teams with a lot of money to spend. In 2011, the Red Sox were 90-72, in third place but in the playoffs. In 2012 they were an awful 69-93, in last place and heading home after the regular season ended. But they spent big in the offseason and were back better than ever in 2013. Not only did they win the world series, they also improved their record over the previous season by an amazing 26 wins. Now, before free agency, teams rarely, if ever, improved or worsened by anything close to that many wins in one season. Improvements and slide backs were far more gradual and depended, in large part, on the state of the team's minor league system. These days, the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, and, to a lesser extent, Mets, Cubs, White Sox and Giants and are not nearly so dependent on their minor league affiliates. When they need players they merely go and buy them. The Orioles are not in the same league as the Yankees. They spend money in the free agent market, but their spending is controlled and limited. One of the biggest improvements that the regime of Dan Duquette and Buck Showalter have made is in the Oriole Minor Leagues. For years you could look at the Oriole Roster and see very few players who were produced by the minor league system. That is no longer true. This year, the starting pitcher, catcher, right fielder, third baseman (as soon as he gets off the DL) and many others on the pitching staff and bench, came up through the Oriole system. This is the Oriole 25-Man Roster for Opening Day:
Catchers: Matt Wieters, Steve Clevenger
Pitchers: Zach Britton, Wei-Yin Chen, Miguel Gonzalez, Tommy Hunter, Ubaldo Jimenez, Brian Matusz, Evan Meek, Bud Norris, Darren O'Day, Josh
Stinson, Chris Tillman, Ryan Webb
Infield: Chris Davis, Ryan Flaherty, J.J. Hardy, Steve Lombardozzi, Jonathan Schoop
Outfield: Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, David Lough, Nick Markakis, Steve Pearce, Delmon Young
Disabled List Manny Machado, Nolan Reimold, Francisco Peguero
The "New" Players and "Newer" Players:
1. Ubaldo Jimenez: A huge signing by the Orioles, Ubaldo Jimenez has been among American League Leaders in games started, wins, strikeouts and ERA. The Orioles have him penciled in as the No. 2 starter.
2. Evan Meek: Signed as a minor league free agent in February, the right-hander and former NL All-Star has struggled in recent years after injuries robbed him of speed on his fastball. But he was highly effective in spring training.
3. Ryan Webb: Signed to a two-year deal as a free agent by the Orioles. Pitched in 66 games last season for Marlins. Throws 95 mph sinker and other pitches.
4. Steve Lombardozzi: The infielder has been with the Nationals since breaking into the big leagues in September, 2011. His career big league average is .264. It looks like he will open the season at second base pending Manny Machado's return. Machado will, of course, play third base, moving Ryan Flaherty to second.
5. Jonathan Schoop: The infielder was called up by the Orioles in September but played hardly at all while Birds were in pennant race. After being eliminated at end of season, Schoop got a few starts, hitting .286 with one home run and one RBI.
6. Nelson Cruz: One of the game's premier professional hitters, he signed with the Orioles in February for one year for $8 million. Coming off season marred by suspension for illegal substance use.
7. David Lough: Obtained in December by the Orioles in a trade with Kansas City. He is a career .276 hitter with 5 home runs and 35 RBI. Broke into big leagues in September, 2012. Before Nelson Cruz signed with Orioles, Lough was expected to compete with Nelson Reimold for starting left field job.
8. Delmon Young: The former first pick in the 2003 major league draft, he signed a minor league contract with the Birds in January and was added to the big league roster over the weekend. He is a career .282 hitter with 100 home runs and 520 RBIs. He will doubtlessly be the DH on most days.
It's hard to believe a team that was in the penant hunt until the last week of the season made this many roster changes. But they did, and it is hard to argue with any of them. I was a big Nate McClouth fan, but it wasn't positive for the Orioles to start McClouth and Nick Markakis in the same outfield. There just wasn't enough pop. McClouth instead signed with Washington. The decision to trade Jim Johnson wasn't treated as negatively in Baltimore as it could have been because, despite the fact that he again led the majors in saves, he also blew a whole bunch of games, way too many, in fact. Showalter hasn't yet named a number one closer although many fans believe Tommy Hunter will earn the position sooner rather than later. Some worry that bringing Nelson Cruz and Delmon Young into the same clubhouse will be bad for team chemistry. I strongly disagree. There really is no rap against Cruz; what he did, he did to himself. His former teammates loved him and so do his new ones. Delmon Young is a bit of a question but I look at it this way: he has been around the block a whole mess of times. As you get older you get wiser. I think Mr. Young knows its time to cash in on all of the God-given talent he has been blessed with. It really is. Really. This would be such a great year to make it happen. If Cruz and Young have the kind of years they are both capable of, and if Adam Jones and Chris Davis continue to do what they have been doing, this could be the year the Orioles go all of the way. A lot will depend on the pitching. I love the Orioles pitching. Chris Tillman has emerged as a No. 1 starter. Ubaldo Jimenez will be the No. 2 starter, with Miguel Gonzalez as No. 3, Bud Norris as No. 4 and Wei-Yin Chen as No. 5. The bullpen again looks very strong, and when Troy Patton returns from 25 game suspension for testing positive for amphetimines, it will be even stronger. Unless things have changed, Buck Showalter is not only a very very good manager, he is also popular with his players. Dan Duquette has proven worthy of the tremendous freedom he has been awarded by owner Peter Angelos. Angelos has proven to be extremely wise in granting these freedoms to Duquette, and sticking with them. This is the year everything really pays off. I believe that the acquisitions of Cruz and Young were a direct response to the Orioles' biggest needs. So long as Manny Machado comes back by the end of April or first half of May, and is somewhere close to where he was at the end of September when he sustained this awful injury, the Orioles will be hitting on all cylinders. Now if Ubaldo Jimenez is everything he can be and wins, say, 16 games, they could do better than I'm predicting.
This is how I see the 2014 season ending in the AL East: 1. Baltimore Orioles: 99 wins, 63 losses; 2. Boston Red Sox: 93 wins, 69 losses; 3. Tampa Bay Rays: 92 wins, 70 losses; 4. New York Yankees: 86 wins, 76 losses; 5. Toronto Blue Jays: 80 wins, 82 losses.
Opening Day is tomorrow. Write these predictions down. Check back in September.
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