BALTIMORE, Maryland March 25, 2014 - The headlines around the globe tell the story of Angela Merkel's dangerous predicament. In America, the NBC network had this over one of their stories: "German Foreign Minister Worries Russia May Open 'Pandora's Box'". In Great Britain, the BBC headline was "Ukraine crisis: Germany's Russian conundrum." In Berlin, Reuters led with this headline: "Russia ties compound German dilemma in Ukraine crisis."
Angela Merkel and her nation have watched in horror as the world stumbled into one of the most discouraging and sad situations imaginable in this, the 14th year of the new millennium. Instead of new problems demanding new ways of thinking, the world in 2014 went back in time. A new Cold War seems to be starting on Merkel's watch.
In Russia, where the old Communist Regime fell and democracy broke out, progress stopped. A former KGB Agent was in power and he said the worst day in his life was when the old Soviet Union fell. Across Eastern Europe, Asia, and the eastern part of the Mediterranean Sea Coast, people who lived under the Soviet Governments cringed. What could possibly be good about a group of men who cared nothing about humanity and human decency, who routinely deprived people of even common necessities, all for the purpose on increasing their power. Many of the former client states had declared independence and held their first free elections in 40 years. For the first time in ages they stopped worrying about secret police watching their every move. For millions of people, the fall of the Soviet Union was a dream come true. But now the Russian leader wants to rebuild Russia, not as a new and idealistic nation capable of being everything that the Soviet Union wasn't, but as a Soviet-style government that enforces its will with bullying and military intimidation, mixed, when the time is right, with out and out bribery. Witness: Ukraine.
Angela Merkel clearly cannot fathom what is going on. Putin has invaded the Crimea and took over by threatening the people who lived there. Ethnic Russians embraced Putin's intervention because to them, the idea of a fellow Russian running the show, favoring them, seemed nice. But other ethnic minorities: Tatars, Ukrainians, Jews, all cringed. Another Soviet-style government was a nightmare, if nothing else.
Putin is poised and ready to keep going. He has massed 30,000 troops on the Ukraine, Russian border, equipped with heavy artillery, tanks, armored personnel carriers, attack helicopters, warplanes and enough logistical support to carry on a prolonged campaign. Certain Putin operatives - for he is a dictator in the purest form - embedded in so-called diplomatic positions, say Russia will not invade Eastern Ukraine. But in Donetsk, just across the border in eastern Ukraine, ethnic Russians have been rioting for weeks and carrying signs begging for Putin to come. He aludes to a way that Ukraine can avoid further military intervention: dump the EU, in fact, dump the west. Align with Moscow, and all will be well. Refuse, and accept the results. An American think-tank called the Democracy Group found that Putin's regime is regressing from a democracy to an authoritarian regime. It seems quite obvious that they are right.
Angela Merkel has heard what Putin is saying, heard it, in fact, loud and clear. When the headlines talk about "conundrums" and other fancy words for being backed up against the wall. She and her nation stand in Putin's looming shadow. She can't believe that in this time an old-style Soviet ruler is going to go around her part of the world, doing what he damn well pleases, whether by intimidation, force, or any other method that gets the favored results. More than any other leader, she has called Putin and scolded him, threatened him, cajoled him. As the headline says, she has told him he is opening Pandora's box, releasing all of the horrors of the Soviet decades. Putin listens and neither agrees or disagrees. Then he hangs up and goes back to bullying his neighbors. Ukraine, of course, isn't the only scene of Putin's efforts to forcibly extend Russian hegemony. He has invaded Georgia. He has troops in the breakaway republis of Trananiatria. a small area that is still recognized as a province of Moldova by all of the Western World. He is starting to ramp up the pressure on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Even Poland has not been free of attempted bullying.
In any other post-war time, Russia's bullying in Europe would be directly and fully rebuffed by the United States. When the Cold War ended in the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the world's only remaining super power was the United States. But that was USA President Barack Obama telling his European Allies that those days are over, at least as far as he can make it that way. While half of the United States has had it up to here with his uber leftist ideas, he is entrenched in his power for three more years. And he is slashing America's defense spending, slashing troop levels, expenditures of weapons systems, research and military readiness. He tells Merkel and the rest of Europe that they have to defend themselves. And he didn't give them five years or ten years to be get ready. He said, effective immediately.
She has been described as the de facto head of the EU, and it is a title that is accurate. She has been called the "Iron Lady" for the hell-bent way she pursues her goals. It is not fair to compare her to Putin because Putin is a dictator and Merkel is a leader in a democratic system. Where Putin merely tells his functionaries what he wants to do, and they do it for him, Merkel must work within Germany's vigorous democracy. But when it comes to foreign policy, she follows her own beliefs. When it comes to Russia, her belief is that an aggressive Russia that continually spills across its borders to absorb weaker neighbors is about the biggest problem she could face.
Underlying her goals as a diplomat, Merkel also must be constantly aware of her country's business interests. Der Spiegel says the some 6,000 German businesses are registered to do business in Russia. Huge amounts of money flow back and forth between the two nations. Oil and Natural Gas comes from Russia to Germany. Technology and payment for technological achievment flows to Germany from Russia. The countries are monetarily interdependent. When Angela Merkel negotiates with Vladimir Putin she is representing thousands of businesses in Germanu, and tens of thousands of Germans who work for them.
And that is her conundrum. It is clear by what she says and how she acts that it is her sacred belief that Russia is breaking every tenet of Civilized Modern Society when it sends its armies across another country's borders to pacify Vladimir Putin. She has told Putin that very clearly. She believes strongly that Putin must pay dearly when he ignores these tenets and sends his armies. If the first round of sanctions do not work and Putin marches on, what will the next round look like? How deeply can she risk hurting her country's employers to get Putin back in line. If she ever gets to the point that she believes Putin cannot be controlled, what does she do then? How does she build up Germany's military quickly if Obama's powers in the United States are not checked. Does she really need a military strong enough to check Russia?
She leads Germany. She leads the EU. She is in the international spotlight as she spars with Putin. Have things gone past the point of no return? Does she have the wherewithal to stop Putin. How badly must she hurt Putin to stop him?
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