BALTIMORE, Maryland April 8, 2014 - Here are the important numbers for Burnley as they pursue the Championship League's second automatic promotion position:
They have 80 points. They have six games remaining. The most points that can be gained over a six game stretch is 18. All of the teams that have a mathematical chance to catch the Claret and claim the second automatic promotion position also have six games left. Thus, any team that is more than 18 points behind Burnley is eliminated from the race to gain the second automatic promotion position. Leicester, of course, has already clinched the first. Thus, there are four teams that still have a mathematical chance of catching Burnley. Here is a look at those teams along with Leicester City and Burnley, together with their records, current point totals, and games remaining:
English Championship Partial Table:
1. Leicester City: 27 wins, 8 draws, 5 losses, 89 points (Last 10: 6-4-0)
2. Burnley: 22 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses, 80 points (Last 10: 6-3-1)
3. Queens Park Rangers: 20 wins, 10 draws, 10 losses, 70 points (Last 10: 4-2-4)
4. Derby County: 20 wins, 9 draws, 11 losses, 69 points (Last 10: 4-2-4)
5. Wigan Athletic: 19 wins, 10 draws, 11 losses, 67 points (Last 10: 6-2-2)
6. Reading: 17 wins, 12 draws, 11 losses, 63 points (Last 10: 4-4-2)
Games remaining:
Leicester City: April 8: Brighton & Hove Albion; April 14: at Reading; April 19: Queens Park Rangers; April 22: at Bolton; April 26: at Huddersfield Town; May 3: Doncaster Rovers
Burnley: April 8: at Barnsley; April 12: Middlesbrough; April 18: at Blackpool; April 21: Wigan Athletic; April 26: Ipswich Town; May 3: at Reading
Queens Park Rangers: April 8: at Blackburn Rovers; April 12: Nottingham Forest; April 19: at Leicester City; April 21: Watford; April 26: Milwall; May 3: at Barnsley
Derby County: April 8: at Blackpool; April 12: Huddersfield Town; April 18: at Doncaster Rovers; April 21: Barnsley; April 26: Watford; May 3: at Leeds United
Wigan Athletic: April 8: Millwall; April 18: Reading; April 21: at Burnley; April 26: Blackpool; April 29: at Birmingham City; May 3: at Blackburn Rovers
Reading: April 8: at AFC Bournemouth; April 14: Leicester City; April 18: at Wigan Athletic; April 22: Middlesbrough; April 26: at Doncaster Rovers; May 3: Burnley
Are there clues in these numbers and schedules as to what will happen over these final weeks? Over the last ten games, Leicester City has picked up 22 points, while Burnley has gained 21 points. Wigan Athletic has gained 20 points in its last twn games. The other three teams, including the two closest to Burnley, have the worst records over the last ten of all the teams listed above. Derby County and the Queens Park Rangers are both 4-2-4 over the last ten, good for 14 points. Burnley has gained 6 points on both teams over that span. Over the last ten games, both Derby and Queens Park are averaging 1.4 points per match. Over the course of the entire season, Queens Park averages 1.75 points per match while Derby County averages 1.725 points per match. In other words, both of the teams with the best chance of overtaking Burnley and grabbing the second automatic promotion position are plays less effectively during the last ten games than they have over the course of the entire season. The Claret, over the course of the season, average exactly 2 points per match. Over the last ten matches their points per game average is 2.1. Burnley has played slightly better going down the stretch than they have over the course of the season. For the record, Leicester is averaging 2.25 points per match over the course of the season to date, while over the last ten their points per match average is 2.2. This means Leicester has slipped just slightly in the last ten games compared to the entire season. But both numbers are better than Burnley's, which cannot help Burnley's confidence as they pursue Leicester.
In these United States, as the long baseball season draws to a close, reporters start discussing a "magic number." Teams in first place in their division have a magic number for eliminating their pursuers. If the team in first has a magic number of 7 for eliminating their closest pursuer, and thus clinching the title, it means that any combination of wins by the first place team and losses by the second place team which equals seven clinches the title. That equation doesn't work in soccer because of the presence of draws. But there is a way of figuring out what must happen for Burnley to clince automatic promotion. The Claret have 80 points, Queens Park has 70, Derby has 69, Wigan has 67 and Reading has 63. Each of the teams have 6 matches left. Thus, each team can pick up a maximum of 18 more points. Starting from the bottom, the most points Reading can have at season's end is 81. Burnley can eliminate Reading from any chance of grabbing the second automatic promotion position by picking up just two points, or by Reading failing to win even one of their remaining six games. Wigan has 67 points, meaning the maximum number of points they can end the season with is 85. This means that the "magic number" for eliminating Wigan is 6. Any combination of Burnley gaining six points or Wigan failing to gain six points and Burnley eliminates Wigan. For example, if Burnley were to lose all six of their remaining matches, Wigan would still have to win four of their remaining matches to catch Burnley. Derby County has 69 points and the maximum number of points they can have at season's end is 87 points. The magic number for Burnley to eliminate Derby County is 8 points. If you want to keep track of the magic number to eliminate Derby, do this: for each game Burnley plays, take the number of points they gain from the match, be it 3 for a win or 1 for a draw, and subtract that from the magic number. And, for each match Derby plays, take the number of points they realize and subtract it from 3. Thus, if Derby draws in their next match, thereby picking up one point, you subtract that number from 3, which, of course, is the maximum number of points Derby can gain in any given match. Subtract the resulting number; i.e., 3 minus 1, and subtract the result from the magic number. For example, both Burnley and Derby have a match tonight. Let's say both draw. Take the one point Burnley gets for the draw and subtract it from the current magic number of 8. A Burnley draw tonight will, in and of itself, drop the magic number to 7. Derby will also get one point for a draw. You subtract that point from the maximum number of points they could have realized tonight, or 3, thus 3-1 equals 2. Subtract that number from the magic number. Thus, if both teams draw tonight, the magic number for eliminating Derby from automatic promotion will drop from 8 to 5. As for the closest pursuer, the Queens Park Rangers, which trail Burnley by ten points, they have a magic number of 9. They have 70 points, if they win all six of their remaining matches they will have 88 points. Any combination of Burnley gained points and Queens Park failed points equalling nine will knock the Rangers from the battle for automatic promotion. Of course, the four teams that finish closest to the two automatic promotion places will enter a single elimination tournament, with the winner getting Championship's third promotion. The four teams in those positions right now, of course, are Queen's Park, Derby County, Wigan Athletic and Reading. But not even Queens Park has clinced one of these four positions. And you have to go all the way down the table to Birmingham to find a team actually mathematically eliminated from the four team playoff. Only the seven teams at the very bottom of the table have been eliminated from qualifying for the four team playoff.
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